Time Series Analysis
The dataset you will analyse in this assignment represents the changes in the closing price of a share in ASX available (Please note that the dataset is composed of 144 observations out of a possible 252 trading days in a year and all the points are collected in the same year and on consecutive trading days). You will work with following tasks:
· Find the best fitting model among the linear, quadratic, cosine, cyclical or seasonal trend models (covered in Module 2) by implementing the model building strategy.
· Give the predictions for the next 5 observations using the best model you find.
· Prepare a report that includes proper sections such as Introduction, Conclusion, Appendix and a chapter for the tasks. The structure of the report is up to you as long as it is a well-structured and neat report. The report expected here is not a short business report or not an essay.
· 1. Present time series in an informative way, both graphically and with summary statistics.
· 2. Estimate model parameters and compare different models developed for the same dataset in terms of their estimation and prediction accuracy.
· 3. Prepare both oral and written reports to present results of time-series analyses.
Written Report format:
1. writing a report with the expected structure. Specifically, "Science Report"